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At the end of 2005, the mainstream price in the domestic AA market fell to around 1,1500 yuan (t price, the same below). In July last year, the market price rose to the highest point in recent years, reaching about 27,000 yuan. With such high profits, domestic producers have devoted great enthusiasm to AA products. Firstly, Xinjiang Dushanzi Tianli announced the construction of a new 70,000-ton AA plant, which is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2007. Then Shandong Hongye announced the construction of a new 100,000-tonne plant. It plans to start production at the end of 2007; Liaohua also announced in 2006 that it will expand its own AA production capacity, plans to expand production of about 160,000 tons, completed the expansion in 2008; Shandong Bohui announced that it will build a new AA plant, a design capacity of 100,000 tons, a total design capacity of 300,000 tons, plans to complete a phase in 2007 The project was put into production. It is estimated that by 2008, China will add 430,000 tons of AA production capacity, plus Liaohua's current production capacity of 140,000 tons. By 2008, China will have 570,000 tons of AA production capacity.
From the perspective of China's consumption of AA products, China consumed about 320,000 tons of AA products in 2005. In 2006, China consumed about 370,000 tons of AA products. In the coming years, the demand for nylon 66 in China will increase significantly. At the same time, the demand in the polyurethane industry will still maintain an increase of around 10%. The growth rate of the unsaturated resin and coating industry will remain at around 5%. Therefore, experts predict that by 2008 China's demand for AA products will reach about 48 million tons, by 2010, its demand will reach about 600,000 tons, relying on domestic production capacity to meet demand.
Under such a big situation, China's original AA supplier strategic plan has gradually changed.
Liaohua's current AA production capacity is about 140,000 tons. Under full load operation, its production capacity can reach about 160,000 tons, and its current domestic market share can account for about 50%. In the next few years, with the new 160,000-ton plant put into operation, its annual production capacity will reach 300,000 tons, and it will become the largest AA producer in Asia. From the current sales model of Liaohua AA products, it will gradually increase sales to end customers and gradually eliminate distributors. At the same time, Liaohua has been improving the quality of its own AA products and is actively seeking export channels to pave the way for new capacity. It is estimated that in the next few years, Liaohua will still be the largest AA supplier in China and will maintain its market share of about 50%. The proportion of direct sales of its products will increase to around 90% (currently around 65%). At the same time, it will open up the path of exports, open up export channels for Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, and may even export to the Middle East and Europe.
Rhodia is currently China's second largest supplier, but in the next few years, its supply to the Chinese market is unlikely to increase substantially; INVISTA is currently the world's largest AA supplier, and INVISTA will be in the next few years. In Asia, the market will be based in Southeast Asia and will focus on the supply of China's market. The supply of PU in China will be reduced due to the rise of domestic factories; Asahi Kasei’s AA products will gradually reduce its market share in China. With the gradual expansion of domestic AA plant production capacity, Asahi Kasei's supply to the Chinese market will gradually decrease, but the market share of TPU polyester factory is still unshakable. The share of Solutia, Randych, and BASF in the Chinese market is difficult to increase further, and LANXESS's market share may decline more significantly.
In addition, Dushanzi, Hongye, and Bohui will become new entrants to China's AA suppliers. For these three companies, who can enter the market as soon as possible, who can be assigned to the final cup of AA high profits. From the perspective of future market sales, the three companies' AA products will first target the PU market, and the nylon industry will be difficult to enter in the short term. Therefore, the three products may run against Ukrainian goods and LANXESS products in the next five years. A small amount of BASF goods, while the price war will be an inevitable choice for these three companies.
To sum up, in the next five years, the pattern of China's AA suppliers will undergo major changes, and Liaohua will still maintain its greatest advantage. Meanwhile, INVISTA and Rhodia will focus on the nylon market. Shanzi, Hongye and Bohui will become new market players. The AA product supply in the Chinese market will be dominated by domestically produced goods. It is initially expected that by 2010, the self-sufficiency rate of China's AA products can reach 80% to 85%.
The adipic acid market will change dramatically
In 2006, the global demand for adipic acid (AA) increased, and the market price increased significantly. Exorbitant profits have enabled domestic production capacity to expand rapidly. In the next five years, the market's supply structure will undergo major changes, and domestic self-sufficiency rate for AA products will also reach over 80%.