John Wyatt, executive consultant of ICIS, recently predicted that the world's ethylene cracking raw material structure will continue to develop into lighter raw materials, but the speed of transformation will be slower than in the past.

Wyatt predicts that global production of ethylene will increase by 52 million tons from 2011 to 2020, with the use of ethane, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and liquid raw materials increasing by 44%, 14%, and 41%, respectively. From 2011 to 2020, the amount of ethane in the world's ethylene cracking raw materials will continue to increase at an average annual rate of 2.3%, while the average annual growth rate in the previous 10 years is 5.4%; the average annual growth rate of demand for LPG as a cracking raw material This was 0.2%, and the average annual growth rate in the previous 10 years was 3.7%. In addition, the demand for naphtha as a raw material for cracking in the world from 2001 to 2010 is decreasing by 6.9% annually, and will decrease at an average annual rate of 2.3% from 2011 to 2020.

In North America, the growth rate of ethane production has slowed, and the average annual growth rate has decreased from 3.5% in 2005-2011 to the current 0.8%. Wyatt said that ethane production growth in the future may only be slightly faster than ethylene production, which will depend on the investment in new steam crackers. In addition, natural gas prices in North America will continue to be lower than crude oil prices, and US suppliers will maximize the production of natural gas condensate (LNG).

In Europe, currently ethylene crackers are mainly based on naphtha, and naphtha supplies may be affected by the further closure of refineries in the region. Wyatt believes that the European ethylene cracker will use LPG as a cracking raw material in the future, because the supply of LPG in the international market is expected to improve.

In Asia, the expanding refining capacity will provide large quantities of raw materials for ethylene crackers. As the demand for petrochemical products in Asia will increase faster than the capacity for refining, the region will also need to import a large amount of naphtha products in the future. The Middle East will also make maximum use of LNG or ethane as cracking raw materials, but the increase in production of cheap ethane in the Middle East will be constrained by development and production costs.

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