New York crude oil futures prices rose 3.4% on October 9th, driving the decline in the rate of change in the movement of international oil prices. Yesterday, according to data from several market monitoring agencies, as of the closing of international oil prices on the 9th, the rate of change in oil prices in the three places was only around -2.0%.

A number of market analysts said that according to the current trend of international oil prices, the rate of change at the end of the month is difficult to achieve -4%, which means that the October oil price cut hopes may be shattered.

Due to the escalation of tensions between Turkey and Syria, on October 9, the international oil price rose dramatically. NATO said that it would take “all necessary measures” to resist Syria’s attacks to protect Turkey. Affected by this, on October 9, the New York WTI oil price rose 3.43%, reaching US$92.39 per barrel; Brent’s oil price rose 2.4% to US$114.5 per barrel.

The information data showed that the change rate of crude oil in the three places was -2.07%, which was a small decrease from the previous trading day, only about -0.06%.

Information analysts said that due to the escalation of the conflict in Syria, the international oil price rose sharply on the 9th, and the spot prices of crude oil in the three places also followed higher prices, making the decline rate of crude oil changes in the three places narrowed.

According to the above-mentioned sources, affected by the economic recovery environment, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate and bearish in the short term, and the rate of change of crude oil in the three regions will continue to show a negative downward trend, approaching -4%. However, if the international oil price no longer rises significantly in the later period, the average price in the three places will remain at the current level. Because of the smaller decline, it will be difficult to break -4% at the end of the month.

This also means that even if the current adjustment of the price of oil has met the 22 working days since last time, there is almost no possibility that the price of oil will be lowered in October.

It is reported that the last time the oil price was adjusted to September 11th, the domestic retail price of refined oil was raised, and the increase was 550 yuan/ton for gasoline and 540 yuan/ton for diesel. On October 10, the conditions for 22 working days have just been met. According to the conditions and methods of the National Development and Reform Commission, when the rate of change in the three places continues for 22 consecutive working days, the rate of change in movement will reach 4%, and domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted.

In late September, international oil prices fell sharply. The market once expected that on October 10, when the conditions for 22 working days were met, domestic oil prices might be lowered. However, since then, the international oil price volatility has been declining, which has led to a gradual decrease in the rate of change, which has caused the market to expect multiple changes, and the oil price may have been reduced from the end of the month to the end of the current month.

â–  Why is it difficult to fall below 4% at the end of the month?

Information analyst Hu Huichun analyzes that the so-called “three-point oil price change rate” specifically refers to the ratio of the spot price of 22 consecutive working days in Xinta, Dubai and Brent to the average price of the last price adjustment period (base period). .

She said that although the spot price lags behind the futures price, it generally keeps the same trend as the futures price.

The international oil price fluctuates every day, but if the proportion of high-priced days gradually increases during the movement, the rate of decline will slow the decline.

According to the formula, as of the close of October 9, the average moving price for 22 working days was US$110.97/barrel, and the movement rate of crude oil movements in the three places was -2.07%, which was a decrease of 0.07% compared with the previous working day.

It is expected that the international oil price will continue to fluctuate in the near future. If the average daily moving price remains at 110.97 U.S. dollars per barrel, the rate of change will only drop by 0.07% per day. With this decline, it is difficult to fall below 4% by the end of the month.

The recent "conflict of Syria-Syria" may push up oil prices, leading to an increase in moving average prices, which will further reduce the rate of change in the rate of change, and even lead to a change in the rate of change.