According to the latest statistical data, the global PVC production capacity in 2005 was 32.86 million tons per year, of which the Asia Pacific region was 16.27 million tons/year, and North America and Western Europe were 8.543 million tons/year and 6.408 million tons/year, respectively. Petrochemical Consulting Company Chemical Markets Alliance (CMAI) predicts that by 2009 the global PVC market demand will grow at an average annual rate of 4%, and new PVC production capacity will be mainly built in Asia, especially in China, Asia PVC production capacity will account for the global total production capacity. The proportion will increase from the current 44% to 48%.
Due to the large amount of new production capacity in China, the operating rate of global PVC installations before 2009 will remain at around 85%. Industry experts further pointed out that in 2005 China's new PVC production capacity reached 2 million tons/year or more, accounting for about 40% of the world's new production capacity this year. Since most of the new installations in China use PVC from the calcium carbide process, and this calcium carbide process PVC is difficult to sell to foreign markets, it is expected that the operating rate of PVC plants in China will be far below the global average.
Contrary to the situation in China, due to the lack of new PVC capacity in North America, the operating rate in the region will be higher than the global average. The emergence of a series of production problems brought about by the impact of the hurricane made the PVC supply in North America significantly tightened in the fourth quarter of this year. Analysts pointed out that due to the lack of new capacity, and OxyVinyls's 150000 tons/year PVC plant in Edmonton, Canada, may be shut down next year, it is expected that the PVC supply in North America will remain tense in 2006. However, it is somewhat gratifying that Shintech is planning to build a new 590,000-ton/year PVC unit in Louisiana.
The North American PVC market experienced a strong growth of 6% in 2004 and a year-on-year decrease of 3% in the first three quarters of this year. Market analysts pointed out that if the residential and construction market in North America develops healthily, then the demand for PVC in North America will increase by 3% to 5% in 2006.
Asian PVC production capacity in 2009 will account for nearly half of the global operating rate will be far below the global average
The United States "Chemical Weekly" published an article last week saying that in the next few years, Asia will lead the rapid growth of the global PVC market.