Since February 2009, the busy scene of Tianjin Port’s “reverse trend of the global economy ” has not been predicted by Lu Yongqing, who was responsible for loading and unloading at the 11# berth of Tianjin Port South.

“The boat was more than we thought. In March and March, we often went to two boats a day, most of them came from Australia.” When temporarily came to brief reporters about the work situation, Lu Yongqing had not washed his hands on his hands. The ash.

Tianjin Port is one of the three largest iron ore ports in China. After the “four ministries and commissions” jointly ordered the evacuation of iron ore from the port inventory in the first half of 2008, the iron ore accumulation phenomenon has now re-emerged.

Zhang Wei, head of the bulk cargo business department of Tianjin Port Group, told this reporter that “according to the April 14 data, the stockpiles of Tianjin Hong Kong’s iron ore mines reached 5.5 million tons, and more than 3 million tons of transfer cargoes were stationed, showing a rising trend”. In addition, the port also "pressed about 20 ships" (about 3 million tons). In October and November 2008, the inventory of iron ore in Tianjin Port was always around 3 million tons, which was basically at historically low levels.

The rise in iron ore inventory at Tianjin Port is not alone.

According to customs data, as of March 30, China’s iron ore stocks at the port have exceeded normal inventory by nearly 3,000 tons, reaching 68 million tons. "In April, it continued to rise, and it has reached 70 million tons," said Liu Zhimei, deputy secretary-general of the Minmetals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce.

Behind this, on the one hand is the rapid rise in China's iron ore imports. In October 2008, China's iron ore imports once fell to 30.62 million tons. In March 2009, this figure has soared to 52.08 million tons, an increase of 46.2% year-on-year, and it has reached a record high.

However, on the other hand, after experiencing the “Little Spring” of the steel industry in January and February of 2009, the digestion capacity of domestic steel companies has recently shown signs of weakness. With the continuous decline in steel prices, in mid-April, China's iron ore imports have decreased.

"Now, basically two or three days to a boat." Lu Yongqing said.

Recession digestion

On April 14, at the 11# berth of Tianjin Port South, a 160,000-ton-class Cape ship loaded with Australian mines was unloading cargo, and the cargo owner was Tangshan Guofeng Iron and Steel Group.

“Port mines are mainly long-term mines for large steel mills,” a person in charge of Tianjin Port's bulk cargo business told reporters. Before 2009, the stock of iron ore at the terminal had been almost radiated. "But years later, the ore was piled up again." However, "the speed of picking up steel plants has been slowing recently."

Under normal circumstances, port shipments are directly proportional to the mill's productivity. Slower shipments mean that the steel mills' productivity is also slowing down.

According to Zeng Shengsheng, an analyst at my steel network, the steel mills are not actively “normally” taking delivery of goods. “While the steel prices experienced a wave of small springs at the beginning of the year, the current steel prices have plummeted again, resulting in the steel mills being unable to distribute. Businesses continue to pay back the subsidy, so businesses have reduced the number of orders from steel mills, steel mills' inventory pressure is gradually increasing."

Domestic steel mills have stopped production and overhauled, providing evidence for the slowdown in steel mill productivity.

Anshan Iron and Steel announced on April 1 that it would conduct 15 days of shutdown maintenance on the 2150 hot rolling production line, which is expected to affect the output of the coiled coils by about 150,000 tons. The steel mills that have announced the suspension of the maintenance plan in April have also included Laiwu Steel, Maanshan Iron and Steel, Shougang, Handan Steel and Tangshan Iron and Steel.

Iron ore imports surged in early 2009, and the “contribution” of small and medium steel companies may be even greater.

"In February and March of this year, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control promoted the resumption of production of small and medium-sized steel mills. The spot ore market is once again active and imports have increased significantly. However, recently, once steel prices have fallen again, it has directly led to an increase in ore stocks," Zeng Jisheng said.

“We entered 3 million tons at the end of last year. Due to the improvement of the market at the beginning of the year, we entered another shipyard (about 170,000 tons) in March. However, the current market situation is declining. This shipbuilding mine is still piled up in Caofeidian.” 4 On the 13th of this month, the head of a raw material business at a medium-sized steel plant in Tangshan told reporters.

The reporter learned from some small steel mills in Fengrun District of Tangshan that most of the small steel mills currently have spot mines ranging from 500,000 to 3 million tons.

Traders "bass bargaining"

Between supply and demand, the speculative forces interspersed with them distorted the fluctuation curve of iron ore. In early 2009, the price of iron ore fell to historical lows and was considered by many middlemen as an opportunity to “bottom the bargain”.

Li Yi, deputy general manager of Sinosteel Corporation, clearly remembers every wave of iron ore market : “In December 2008, the Indian ore CIF price fell to US$64.78/tonne, the lowest since 2007, 2009 In January of the year, the price rebounded, but it has now dropped to a new low.” On April 15th, the latest price for the Indian ore was US$64/ton, “basically the cost price”.

Zhang Jian, deputy general manager of Minmetals and Minerals, may provide an explanation for traders to “bottom the bargain”: “Compared to the current price, ore prices are unlikely to fall deeper in the future” because the current ore price “has Indian mines. And the cost of domestic mines supports, and the three major international mining companies will also adjust their production capacity."

"If this year's long-term mine price cuts by 40%, then the spot price is now lower than the long-term price. Traders are all ready to buy ore," said a person from Rizhao Sino-Swiss Group's mineral sales company.

A person in charge of the Minmetals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce told reporters that in February and March, China’s imports of iron ore rose in a contrarian direction, which was related to the volume of imports by traders.

An insider of an iron ore import trading company told the reporter that the company’s plan this year is to import 6.8 million tons, and the first three months have completed a mission of 3 million tons.

A person in charge of Tianjin Port’s bulk cargo company also stated that in February and March, traders imported ore more frequently than steel mills. But today, the weakening of domestic steel companies' digestive capacity has also dampened the enthusiasm of middlemen for "stocking."

Wang Shoudong, business manager of Shanxi Sanlian Zhengfeng International Trading Company, admits that traders have made more offers to the upstream mines, but there are few offers to the downstream steelmakers. “The demand for ore by the steel mills is not large”.

Australian temptation

In the iron ore imports that surged in early 2009 in China, the Indian mines, which were relatively cheap, were once the protagonists. Li Yi, deputy general manager of Sinosteel, stated that “In the first two months of 2009, Indian ore has surpassed Brazilian mines in the Chinese market and it has become the second largest source of minerals”.

But today, the continued decline in spot prices and sea freight rates has made Australian mines increasingly dominant in their competition with Indian mines.

The Australian mine even seized the low price advantage of the Indian mine. According to statistics, the spot price of Australian ore has now dropped to US$60/ton, which is lower than the Indian mine’s US$64/ton. Compared with the long-term price of Australia Ore Co., Ltd. of US$92/ton, the decline has been about 40%.

Zhang Hao, deputy general manager of Minmetals and Minerals, believes that “under the buyer’s market, competition among suppliers becomes a major contradiction”. “Compared to the Indian mines, Australia and other large mines have low-cost advantages and there is room for price cuts.” If Australia's ore prices continue to decline, it may cause India's mines to lose money.

In the context of the delay in the outcome of the iron ore negotiations, Rio Tinto, which has a price advantage, and BHP Billiton, are expanding their spot sales in China. Previously, only qualified importers could buy mines from the two giants.

In the interview, dozens of people in the industry expressed their plans for importing Australian mines to reporters. Wang Wenxiu, general manager of Hong Kong Iron & Welty League International Trading Co., Ltd., said: "The price of Australian ore is now very suitable. We intend to enter the spot market."

The port deposits in Tianjin Port are also mainly Australian mines. "The most recent shipments are almost all Australian mines," Lu Yongqing said.

Tianjin Port Zhang Wei told reporters that at present, the port's iron ore mainly comes from Australia, "the Brazilian mine is less than 20%, India's mine is less than 30%, and the Australian mine accounts for half, and is still growing."