Recently, the topic of "15-year protection period" for China's accession to the World Trade Organization (hereinafter referred to as "WTO") has been expiring on July 1st, and the automobile industry has been the first to bear the brunt of the involvement of the sector. Related rumors are rampant.
In this regard, Tu Xinquan, executive director of the China WTO Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, said in an interview with the reporter of China Business News: "As early as 2010, China’s opening commitments at the beginning of its accession to the WTO have all been fulfilled. Negotiations between the round and the World Trade Organization are still going on, and it is hoped that there will be results at the end of this year. The results of the new negotiations may affect all walks of life and will still have certain binding effects."
Looking back on 2001, "accession to the WTO" is seen as a sign that China's opening up has entered a new stage. At the same time as the new round of negotiations with the World Trade Organization, China has also begun a new round of opening up. At the "World Trade Organization Twenty Years Seminar" held on June 10, Long Guoqiang, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that opening up to the outside world is a strategic choice for China to strengthen the country and enrich the people in the context of globalization. The spirit of entering the WTO has promoted a new round of opening up.
For the current overall situation of deepening market-oriented reforms and further reform and opening up, "second WTO accession" can be said to be a general statement, whether it is industrial initiative opening to the outside world or based on a new round of trade with the world. The relative passive adjustment of the results of the organization negotiations is all within this category. For the automobile, which is a highly open industry, what changes will be brought about by the “second WTO accession”?
Before the new development stage, rumors about China’s accession to the WTO on July 1st have been rumored not long ago. In fact, after fulfilling the opening commitments at the beginning of the WTO, China has entered a new stage of market reform after several years of development.
A few days ago, the reporter asked the relevant person of the Ministry of Commerce and a number of economists about the "protection period" and learned that the "15-year protection period" is not true, and the tariffs on import and export vehicles derived from this will be after July 1. It is even more nonsense to downgrade to “zero tariffs” and China’s full opening of foreign investment.
“The so-called 'protection period' is not correct. When China joined the WTO, it did get a 'transition period' of time for some sensitive industries or products, but these 'transition period' only lasted until 2010. The concept of '15 years' does not exist. July 1 this year is not a time node of any 'transition period', it is completely rumored." Tu Xinquan told reporters that China gained during the negotiation process of WTO accession. The transition period is actually to allow a certain number of industries or products to have a certain buffer time in the process of opening up to the outside world. For example, the automobile industry that was in the transitional period at that time, since the accession to the WTO in 2001, the import tax rate has been lowered year by year, and by 2006, According to the initial commitment, the vehicle import tax rate will be lowered to 25%, and parts such as body, chassis and low- and medium-displacement vehicle engines will be reduced to 10%. "The purpose of gradually setting the import tax rate is to allow these industries or products not to be directly affected by competition due to tariff adjustments after WTO accession."
It is not difficult to speculate that after entering the WTO in 2001, China passed the five-year “transition period” and resisted the impact of some market competitions for the auto industry's own brands, and it has won a certain space for development. By 2006, the auto industry's commitment to the beginning of the WTO had been fully implemented, and its own brands basically had the basis for competition with joint venture car brands and foreign car brands. Moreover, after nearly 10 years of competition, the Chinese auto market has gradually entered a new round of market-oriented reform and opening up.
Although active and passive, although July 1 is not the end of the "protection period", the Ministry of Commerce has also clarified the facts and said that the overall level of tariffs in China will remain basically balanced in the future. However, this does not mean that the auto industry will no longer have similar open adjustments such as lowering the import tax rate. Because in a certain sense, China has already begun "second time to join the WTO."
"Automobiles, as a highly open industry, are likely to be one of the first areas to be fully open in the new round of market-oriented reforms. This is different from the previous implementation of the passive commitment to WTO, and it is an initiative and open behavior. Optimize the industrial structure through full market competition," said Liu Ming, director of the Automotive Industry Division of the National Information Center.
In the eyes of the industry, since the second half of 2014, the automotive industry has undergone more major changes, including the relevant departments to stop the registration of authorized dealers of automobile brands, the revision of the "Implementation Measures for the Administration of Automobile Brand Sales", and anti-monopoly work. Continued, open parallel import car business. These changes are all in line with the demands and direction of the country's "deepening market reforms". As far as the current Chinese auto industry is concerned, these changes are the staged results of its initiative opening.
According to Long Guoqiang’s statement, including the establishment of a free trade zone, the reform of the foreign-related economic system and the expansion of opening up to the outside world will be further promoted, which is equivalent to joining the WTO once again. Therefore, the industry also has the theory of “secondary WTO accession”.
Correspondingly, China’s implementation of the commitments of the World Trade Organization is a relatively passive approach. Following the fulfillment of all WTO commitments in 2010, the results of a new round of negotiations with the World Trade Organization are also coming out. Comparing the results and commitments of the negotiations at the beginning of the WTO, this is another "second time to join the WTO."
"In the context of China's further deepening of market-oriented reforms, the new round of negotiations is based on further promotion of liberalization, and the dominant thinking is also further open to the outside world. The new negotiation results will have different impacts on various industries, as the outcome of the negotiations is It is binding, so it is not ruled out that the automobile industry will lower the import tax rate, etc." Tu Xinquan told reporters.
The survival of the fittest is at present. The outcome of the new round of negotiations with the World Trade Organization is still inconclusive. China's market-oriented reforms are still deepening, so it is impossible to say whether the auto industry will usher in full openness. However, in the eyes of the industry, in the new era of openness in the automotive industry, with the active and relatively passive adjustments, in addition to bringing full market competition, there will be many major changes, and even accelerate industrial upgrading and achieve the survival of the fittest. .
"The opening of the automobile industry will be multi-layered. For example, the import tax rate will be lowered within a certain range, which may be due to the results of a new round of negotiations, or may be due to domestic voluntary adjustments to promote consumption. The problem has been mentioned many times, and it is bound to change in the new era of opening up. The stock ratio is an inevitable trend. In the future, the stock ratio may be adjusted in various forms.” A researcher from the Ministry of Commerce, who is not willing to be named Tell the reporter, "In addition, in this round of opening up, the most affected should be independent brands, and related companies will reshuffle in the more intense competition process, and there will be a wave of integration."
In fact, after experiencing the five-year “transition period” at the beginning of the WTO, independent brands have ushered in the golden age of the Chinese auto market, and their respective main brands have also laid a certain foundation. Because of this, since the beginning of this year, while the Chinese auto market has returned to rational growth, independent brands have shown a trend of counter-current.
However, most people in the industry still have concerns about this. With the price system of foreign-funded and joint-venture car companies and the upward breakout of self-owned car companies, the two have evolved from the original “well water does not commit river water” to “short-handed connection”, and the independent brand in the next opening process, It is still unknown whether it can continue to maintain its stamina.
To this end, including Xu Heyi, Chairman of BAIC Group, Liu Weidong, Deputy General Manager of Dongfeng Group, and Chen Guangzu, a well-known commentator in the automotive industry, all predict that by 2020, Chinese auto companies will face the survival of the fittest, and thus There was a wave of mergers and acquisitions.

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