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The situation in oil-producing countries eased and oil prices fell to the lowest point in a month
International crude oil futures ended the sustained decline on Friday, closing for the first time in a week. However, under the influence of the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Najaf, Iraq, oil prices also fell to the lowest point since August. The most significant impact on the international crude oil market in the past week is that the situation in Iraq has been calm, with both North and South oil exports reaching the highest point after the war. In the past week, northern Iraq delivered crude oil to Turkey’s Mediterranean port Ceyhan at a rate of 4.5 million barrels per day. The Kirkuk crude oil storage tank at the port had a maximum capacity of 9 million barrels, but there is one tank in maintenance and the current maximum capacity is 7 million barrels. The Kirkuk crude oil storage tanks at the port have been filled up to the weekend and Iraq’s northern oil export pipeline has been shut down. Sources said that the Swiss company Victoria has already booked an oil tanker and will load 1 million barrels of Kirkuk oil from the port on September 5 and 7th. This will be the first export of Iraqi oil from the port of Ceyhan since May. After the U.S.-backed Iraqi National Guard safeguarded its oil facilities, the large-caliber oil export pipeline in southern Iraq was also reopened after a two-week shutdown. The crude oil exported from the ports of the Persian Gulf in the South recovered to about 2 million barrels per day. The Iraqi government signed a peace agreement with the armed forces of Sadr. Shi’ite forces left the Ali Mosque in the holy city of Najaf. However, the Iraqi opposition on Thursday and Friday successively attacked the country’s oil facilities and shaken the stability of crude oil exports. Two pipelines connecting the oil fields and export tanks in the south were attacked. Persian Gulf port exports decreased from 2 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day earlier this week. On Thursday, these armed men also attacked eight pipelines connecting the southern oil field to the pump station near Basra. This caused the oil pipelines in the south to be reduced by half again over the weekend. US Secretary of Energy Abraham met with Mandi, chairman of the International Energy Agency, in Paris to discuss oil market issues. Officials of both the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency have insisted that emergency oil reserves can only be released if there is a severe supply shortage. The U.S. Bush administration pointed out that if the U.S. crude oil daily import volume is only 6 million barrels, or if the country’s oil and oil purchases are halved, U.S. emergency oil reserves will be used. However, Vice President Cheney explained that unless there is a "national crisis", no emergency reserve will be released. In the weekly oil data released by the U.S. government, gasoline demand was less than expected in the summer driving season, and gasoline stocks were larger than expected. As a result, the sharp fall in gasoline futures drove the overall decline in the oil futures market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes that as of the week of August 20th, US crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week, which was doubled by analysts. Analysts once estimated that gasoline inventories fell by 2 million barrels, but the U.S. Energy Information Administration believes it is the same as last week, and that the demand for gasoline has not increased. This is when the U.S. summer driving season is nearing its end. The Russian government’s recourse for tax owed has not affected the supply of Yukos, and the company’s petroleum transportation costs in September have already been paid. However, the outlook for Yukos remains uncertain. There are two diametrically opposite versions of the forecast for OPEC production in September. According to Petrologistics, the oil industry consultancy, OPEC is expected to produce 29.9 million barrels of oil per day in August, which is 400,000 barrels higher than in July. However, the consultancy Oil Movements believes that OPEC's shipping volume in August is estimated to drop by 380,000 barrels per day. OPEC has already stated that it plans to increase its daily production from 29.6 million barrels in July to 30.5 million barrels in September, at an affordable price. OPEC Deputy Secretary-General Maizar Rahman stated at the annual data conference held in Vienna that OPEC has a surplus production capacity of 100-150 million barrels, which can be put into the market immediately. However, he also warned that OPEC could not control the price, and said that persistently high oil prices will damage the interests of the organization because consumers will look for alternative energy sources. He believes that there are speculative and other non-fundamental premiums of 10-15 US dollars per barrel of oil, so OPEC can not control the price of oil. As of Thursday, the price of oil has fallen below 40 dollars per barrel, and this time it broke through 43 dollars per barrel in the same week. To sum up, the international oil price has continued to decline for the past week. Although it has rebounded on the weekend, it has rebounded. The situation in Iraq has played a role in the recent oil price, the ceasefire of Sadr’s armed forces, and the peaceful resolution of the Najaf conflict, but the sound of Iraq’s explosion continues. Although the Guards have already strictly defended the oil facilities, the oil pipeline has been repeatedly damaged. Just as Venezuelan oil minister Ramirez said, if the United States wants oil prices to fall, it should withdraw its troops from Iraq. He said that people are asking OPEC what they can do to lower oil prices. The best plan is for the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq. Therefore, it can be predicted that the political situation in the oil producing countries is uneasy and the world oil market has no stability.