In the context of the financial crisis, whether the Chinese economy can gradually recover from the bottom after the first quarter has gradually become a focus of world attention. Recently, China's economic data released in the first quarter of this year has caused warming waves. “China’s economic situation has begun to show positive changes and the development of the situation is better than expected.” For the current economic situation, Premier Wen Jiabao recently stated so. National Bureau of Statistics will release April 16th 2009, a quarter of the national economic situation and publish detailed data on consumption, investment and industrial production in the next day. These data are important indicators for judging the Chinese economy and will also become the basis for whether China's economic stimulus policies need to be overweight.

     China's economy has shown positive changes

     In the context of the financial crisis, 2009 was already considered the “difficult year for China’s economy”. The first quarter of 2009 has already taken place. Can the Chinese economy emerge from the harsh winter? How is China's series of economic policies for responding to the crisis effective? Has the Chinese economy shown signs of recovery? In response to this, the Chinese leaders have given their answer with full confidence.

     When answering questions before attending the G20 summit, Chinese President Hu Jintao pointed out on China's economic situation that in order to maintain stable and rapid economic development, we have adjusted macroeconomic policies in a timely manner, decisively implemented proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and formed further expansion. Domestic demand, a package plan to promote economic growth. At present, these measures have achieved initial results and have shown positive signs. We are confident, qualified and capable of continuing to maintain steady and relatively rapid development of the Chinese economy.

On April 10 , when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Thailand, he said that China’s economic situation began to show positive changes and the development of the situation was better than expected. China’s investment has increased substantially, and consumption has grown steadily. Difficulties in some industries and enterprises have begun to reverse and business conditions have recovered; credit growth has been rapid, and the bank’s overall health and stability have resulted in ample liquidity.

     “All the policies and measures we have implemented have already seen initial results.” Looking back at the way the first quarter of this year was passed, Premier Wen Jiabao said that the principles and policies adopted by the Chinese government are correct, timely, and effective.

     China is expected to take the lead in global recovery

     Credit growth is particularly important for promoting the economy, and the central government made the most effective monetary policy at the end of last year. From the first quarter financial and operating data of money and credit supply China's central bank announced April 11 the point of view, there are three signals have begun to emerge: the gradual credit funds into the real economy; monetary tools to stimulate the economy will continue to be an appropriate rhythm; on the capital market Form a certain support.

     According to the data, China’s new renminbi loans in March hit another “astronomical amount”, reaching a record 1.98 trillion yuan, and cumulatively reaching 4.58 trillion yuan in the first quarter. This also confirms that the effect of the policy of strongly stimulating the economy in the past six months has become apparent. As a matter of fact, more funds have already flowed into the real economy. In March , the short-term proportion of bill financing has dropped to only 22% , which is much lower than the ratio of about 4 in February and February, reflecting that the proportion of substantial loans has continued to rise.

     On the import and export side, the information released by the General Administration of Customs on April 10 also showed good results: In March this year, exports and imports continued to decline, but the declines have all decreased. At the same time, exports of labor-intensive industries with low demand elasticity have recovered.

     The industry, which accounts for half of China's economy, also shows signs of bottoming out. Data show that in March the PMI (China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) of 52.4 for four consecutive months of recovery. The PMI index, which is known as the GDP trend indicator, is considered to be a leading indicator to quickly and timely reflect market dynamics. It is generally believed that the PMI index is above 50 , which reflects the overall expansion of the manufacturing economy; if it is below 50 , it reflects the general decline of the manufacturing economy. In this regard, Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the continuous rise of the PMI index not only shows that the central government's policy package of expanding domestic demand, promoting growth, adjusting the structure, deepening reform, and improving people’s livelihood has been clearly effective, but also means that the Chinese economy is likely to have stabilized. Warmer.

     The use of electricity has always been called the economic "barometer." Data show that China’s electricity consumption in the entire society rose significantly in March. As the two most active regions in China's economy, the recovery of electricity consumption in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is even more pronounced. Compared with February, Shanghai's electricity consumption increased by 13 in March. 8% ; Jiangsu increased by 20% ; Zhejiang increased by 30% and Guangdong increased by 26% .

     In addition, the results of the national business climate survey recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that entrepreneurial confidence has picked up, and the national business climate index in the first quarter has also shown signs of a narrowing decline.

     In terms of expanding domestic demand, the domestic automobile production and sales in the first quarter have been picking up month by month, ending the downward trend in the fourth quarter of last year. Both production and sales have achieved slight growth, with sales slightly higher than output. Data show that in the first quarter of this year, domestic car sales reached 2.678 million units, surpassing the United States and Japan for three consecutive months and becoming the world’s number one sales volume. At the same time, automobile companies have raised their expectations at the beginning of the year, driven by the revitalization of the automobile industry and automobile consumption policies.

     China's property market also ushered in "little spring." The National Bureau of Statistics released on the 13th the real estate market operating data show that in March China's property market prices rebounded.

     In addition, the recent performance of the Chinese stock market in support of China’s economy is expected to recover first in the global crisis. Driven by the introduction of major economic stimulus policies and the continued improvement of macroeconomic data, Chinese A- shares also rose sharply in the first quarter. The Shanghai Index led the world with a quarterly increase of 30.34% .

     It is not difficult to see from the economic statistics of the first quarter that have been announced one after another that the Chinese economy has already experienced warm air. In the absence of the global economy, China has become the bright spot for the first recovery. The Wall Street Journal also captured the signals shown by these data: The Chinese government’s economic stimulus plan is beginning to play its role, increasing the chance of getting out of the economic downturn.

     Bureau of Statistics is about to publish economic data for the first quarter of 2009

     Industry experts generally believe that the Chinese economy will certainly rebound to some extent, but it is difficult to determine whether it is a short-term rebound or a sustained recovery. National Bureau of Statistics will release April 16th 2009, a quarter of the national economic situation and publish detailed data on consumption, investment and industrial production in the next day. These data are important indicators for judging whether China's economy bottoms out, and will also become the basis for whether China's economic stimulus policies need to be overweighted.

     Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out in an open statement recently that the current Chinese economy still faces great difficulties. This is attributable to the fact that external demand has decreased and exports have fallen by a large margin, affecting exporters, export-oriented industries, and export-oriented regions. This resulted in a decline in corporate profits, reduced fiscal revenue, and increased employment pressure. With the deepening of the international financial crisis, we must not take it lightly. The international financial crisis has not yet reached its bottom. It is difficult to say that the Chinese economy has emerged from the crisis. He also said that at present, it is necessary to step up the implementation of the package plan that has already been launched, and at the same time keep a close track of changes in the economic situation at home and abroad and formulate new solutions.

     Premier Wen's remarks have aroused the attention of the market about whether China will introduce a new round of economic stimulus programs. Analysts said that at the moment, the focus should be shifted to boost domestic demand and prevent overcapacity from deteriorating. This is also in agreement with the market's "new economic stimulus package that emphasizes consumption." Some media cited experts' analysis and pointed out that China's new round of economic stimulus programs will favor people's livelihood and consumption, and the nine sectors of medicine, agriculture, new energy, real estate, banking, household appliances, automobiles, textiles, and electronic information may benefit from this.

     Although there are different views on when the new round of economic stimulus plan will be targeted, it is clear that there are still many cards that the state can make in policy formulation. As Wang Jun, the deputy finance minister of China, said that the current fiscal deficit accounts for only 2.9% of GDP , there is still room for manoeuvre to cope with various accidents in the future.