Recently, some domestic organizations have disagreed on the 2012 auto market forecast, and there are optimistic and pessimistic expectations. In fact, this kind of forecast is of little value to the industry because the forecast itself is uncertain, not to mention the fact that the real market is changing rapidly. Someone has played an analogy: The prediction is like a fast-running rabbit aiming at a car 100 kilometers per hour. Others have metaphorized the predictions as if the driver blindfolded and was driven by a person in the back seat. It's all very difficult. However, some people say that forecasting is easy to do. Kotler said in Marketing Management: “The easiest expert is the expert who predicts the future. He only needs to have: a wealth of imagination and the use of vivid words.”

The market forecast should adopt the method of investigation and research, but the cost is high and the accuracy is not high. Many institutions use mathematical models, but the choice of variables is difficult to accurately determine. In fact, people are still scratching their heads.

Looking back at the car market forecast in recent years, we can see that the success rate is very low.

For example, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") predicts that China's automobile production and sales in 2006 can achieve a 12% growth, and the annual production and sales of automobiles will exceed 6.4 million vehicles. In 2006, the actual annual automobile production was 727.97 million units, an increase of 27.32% compared with 2005; and the sales of automobiles was 721.60 million, an increase of 25.13% over 2005.

China Automobile Association predicts that the total demand of the auto market in 2007 will be 8 million, an increase of 14.3%; in 2007, the actual automobile production was 8,881,300, an increase of 22.00% over 2006; and the annual auto sales were 8,790,500, an increase of 21.82% over 2006.

At the beginning of 2008, the China Automobile Association’s forecast is 10 million, an increase of 25%. However, in July, the China Automobile Association will reduce the expected increase to 7% -10%. They said that the reason for the slowdown in growth forecast was mainly due to the tightening of macroeconomic policies. In 2008, the actual automobile production was 9.3451 million units, an increase of 5.21% compared to 2007; the automobile sales were 9,380,500 units, an increase of 6.70% over 2007.

In 2009, foreign companies, domestic joint venture companies, and some famous organizations are expected to have different divergence. Optimistic estimates will maintain a 10% increase, pessimistic estimates are negative 10%. In 2009, the actual automobile production was 13.791 million, an increase of 48.30%; the sales of automobiles were 13,644,800, an increase of 46.15%.

CAAC predicts that the growth rate of automobile production and sales in 2010 will be around 10%, and it is expected to reach 15 million vehicles. In 2010, the actual automobile output reached 18,264,700 units, an increase of 32.44% year-on-year; sales were 18,061,900 units, an increase of 32.37% year-on-year.

China Automobile Association is expected to increase by 10%-15% in 2011, and the annual production and sales are expected to reach 20 million vehicles. In 2011, the production and sales of automobiles reached 18.8199 million vehicles and 18.5051 million vehicles, a slight increase of 0.84% ​​and 2.45% year-on-year respectively.

On the other hand, even if the market forecast is relatively accurate, it is only a simple reference for the enterprise. The key is to find out where the market is and how large the company is. When the market changes, companies should adjust their strategies in a timely manner. In the same situation, there are some companies whose products are in short supply, some companies are selling at a low level, and some even lose money. Even in the high market temperatures of 2009-2010, some companies still felt a deep chill, and in the depressed market in 2011, there were also companies that could pay 27 months of wages.