The phased cooling of the domestic pharmaceutical industry in 2011 may continue this year.

On January 10th, UBS Pharmaceutical Industry analysts stated that in 2011, the pharmaceutical industry related policies began to shift from "supporting development" to "adjusting and reconsidering". The growth rate of profit growth in the pharmaceutical industry decreased, and the profit growth rate of pharmaceutical listed companies declined significantly. The growth rate of the industry's income will decrease by 15% to 20% from the previous year.

The pharmaceutical industry may slow down

Recently, at the press conference of the Southern Food and Economic Research Institute of the State Food and Drug Administration, Lin Jianning, director of the Southern Medicine Economic Research Institute, also conducted an analysis and prediction of the Chinese medicine economy in 2012.

He said that due to the global economic downturn, the government's 850 billion yuan in new medical reforms has been put in place, the future input growth rate may decline, due to public hospitals drug costs control, medical insurance payment methods change and other reasons, compared to previous years, 2012 is a medicine In the "year of adjustment" for industrial transformation and upgrading, the growth rate of China's pharmaceutical economy may slow down.

UBS expects that in the next three to five years, the overall expenditure on China's medical insurance will steadily decelerate, falling from around 30% in the past five years to around 20%. During the period, the growth rate of pharmaceutical income of enterprises may decrease.

An industry analyst who declined to be named told the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that “The pharmaceutical industry faces policy risks and cost pressures in 2012, but the most important factor affecting the pharmaceutical industry is demand, as overall demand maintains rapid growth. Therefore, there is still potential for development.” In addition, “the pressure of the policy mainly stems from the aspects of price, medical insurance investment, and expansion of the base drug.” He said that “the growth rate of pharmaceutical income of enterprises will certainly decline during the down period.” Three years is the peak period of investment in health care reform, and may stay above 20%. In 2012, expected income may fall below 20%, which may be around 15% to 17%."

UBS believes that price factors determine corporate profits and are directly related to the company's profit prospects. They mainly involve three levels of policy factors: administrative price cuts, downward bid prices, and ex-factory price and circulation price increase management.

The pharmaceutical industry index is weaker than the broader market

Investment Advisor Guo Fanli of the pharmaceutical industry told the reporter of “Daily Economic News”, “According to the situation in 2011, the weak situation will still have a certain impact on this year. In 2012, the income growth of the pharmaceutical industry may also be reduced. The amplitude may be about 15%."

The research report released by Orient Securities on January 12 analyzed the data of the pharmaceutical industry from January to October of 2011. The conclusions show that the overall 2011 data is not optimistic. Although the income growth rate has reached the highest level in ten years, the gross profit rate level It fell to the lowest in ten years.

According to research reports from Tianxiang, in 2011, the pharmaceutical industry was affected by policies, the price of Chinese herbal medicines, and the unpredictable rate of expansion of basic medicines. The overall market operating environment was poor, resulting in a weak overall trend of the pharmaceutical industry.

The data shows that as of December 30, 2011, the World Pharmaceutical Industry Index fell by 31.54% in 2011, and the Shanghai Index fell by 21.68% during the same period.

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