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IEA announces end of cheap oil era
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently highlighted in its latest monthly Oil Market Report that the era of cheap oil is unlikely to return unless a major global recession occurs. As an intergovernmental organization composed of oil-consuming nations, the IEA is considered one of the most authoritative voices in energy analysis. According to their report, global oil demand this year has fallen short of expectations due to slower economic growth in major industrialized countries and persistently high oil prices. The agency now estimates that global oil consumption will average 87.5 million barrels per day this year, which is 80,000 barrels less than previously projected.
Since last year, several developed nations have significantly reduced their oil consumption. While milder winter conditions may have played a role, factors like weak economic performance and elevated fuel costs are also contributing. The IEA emphasizes that only a severe global economic downturn could bring oil prices back below $60 per barrel.
High oil prices have become the new norm. Over the past six years, global oil prices have surged from under $20 per barrel in early 2002 to over $100 today. Even compared to the same period last year, when prices were around $60, the increase is striking. The IEA’s report underscores that, in today's high-price environment, it is highly unlikely that oil prices will ever return to the levels seen in the first decade of the 21st century. This shift marks a fundamental change in the global energy landscape, with long-term implications for economies, industries, and consumers worldwide.